While other countries’ infection rates have been rising sharply, Turkey’s have barely changed throughout September. It has reported an average of 13 new cases per 100,000 people over a seven-day spell, varying by only a few per cent during the month; the UK’s threshold for imposing quarantine is 20 cases.
An estimated 10,000 British holidaymakers in Turkey face a choice between paying a fortune for a flight home on Friday – if they can find one – or spending two weeks in self-isolation when they return to the UK.
The Department for Transport (DfT) said data on Covid-19 infections meant anyone travelling back from Turkey or Poland after 4am on Saturday must quarantine for 14 days.
At the same time the maximum fine for breaching self-isolation rules will rise to £10,000.
But the low and steady figure appears to have raised suspicions among medical experts in the UK that the data cannot be trusted. A leaked letter between health officials in Turkey indicated that a huge spike in new infections had been covered up.
Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, said: “The Turkish Health Ministry has been defining the number of new Covid-19 cases in a different way to the definition used by international organisations such as the World Health Organisation and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, so we have updated our risk assessment for the country.”
The move will cause massive disarray in the travel industry as one of the last remaining options for British holidaymakers is being closed off.
A spokesperson for Abta, the travel association, said: “The removal of Turkey and Poland from the travel corridors list is a massive blow for the travel industry.
“This coupled with popular winter-sun destinations, like the Canary Islands, still on the quarantine list only piles the pressure on a struggling sector.”
At the same time as the DfT imposed quarantine, the Foreign Office warned against all non-essential travel to the affect countries “based on the current assessment of Covid-19 risks in the country”.
A spokesperson for Manchester Airports Group, which also includes Stansted and East Midlands, said: “Poland and Turkey are hugely popular destinations, and their removal from the safe travel list means that a large proportion of the markets our passengers usually travel to are now effectively closed-off, despite many of them having much lower infection rates than the UK
“This reinforces just how vital it is for the government to establish a testing regime which would allow for a safe reduction in quarantine periods for passengers arriving from abroad.
“We welcomed confirmation in early September that this is being actively worked on.
“Customers need confidence now as they look to book holidays for next year, and we look to Government to provide an update on this work as soon as possible.”
By 7pm on Thursday, the cheapest one-way flight on British Airways from Istanbul to Heathrow on Friday evening was £503. An hour earlier it stood at £315.
The Poland decision was widely expected after new infection rates per 100,000 cases increased well above the government’s threshold. At 26, it is still only 40 per cent of the UK’s rate of 65. Air routes to Poland had been proving reasonably viable for airlines including Ryanair and Wizz Air.
The Dutch Caribbean islands of Saba, Bonaire and St Eustatius have also been placed on the no-go list, but that rating is irrelevant because anyone travelling from them would need to transit in Amsterdam, which in itself would trigger 14 days of self-isolation.
Greece and Italy, which are fractionally above the government’s threshold for quarantine, have retained quarantine exemption.
