Vaccines minister Maggie Throup has insisted the government’s “plan B for Covid restrictions is working” – the morning after various NHS trusts were forced to declare critical incidents over staff shortages.
Asked whether it was time to consider switching to “plan C”, Ms Throup told Sky News resolutely: “No, plan B is working, as you can see from the number of hospitalisations – it’s far, far fewer than this time last year … it’s important that we follow the data and we have been doing that all along.”
It comes as incidents were declared at a number of NHS hospitals on Monday due to the “extreme and unprecedented” number of staff off work due to Covid. “Definite worry that hospitalisations could rise again if infection rates do,” Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, said. “Government must be ready to move fast on restrictions if needed.”
Boris Johnson admitted yesterday that damage and disruption to the health service could last “weeks” but said no new restrictions were necessary. Meanwhile, headteachers of secondary schools returning today have warned they too are preparing for large swathes of staff sickness.
Covid cases ‘plateauing in London but rising across rest of Britain’
Let’s hear from Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, now, who is saying hospital admissions seem to have “plateaued in London or there may be a second peak after the new year now, but it’s rising across the rest of Britain”.
He told Times Radio that, often, for many hospitals “the most pressing element of all” was the number of staff who are absent due to Covid. And that even without Covid, the NHS is 100,000 staff short, “so we have a long-term failure in terms of workforce planning and resourcing”.
“The problem with staff absence is that it is unpredictable and lumpy in the sense that you don’t know where somebody is going to get sick and, when somebody does get sick, it’s then more likely that other people in that team will get sick and hospitals and healthcare systems are complex, they’re inter-dependent,” Mr Taylor said, “so … if you lose paramedics then the ambulance can’t go out, and if ambulances can’t go out then that means there’s more pressure on other services.”
He added: “Even using all their imagination and creativity, it is becoming almost impossible, which is why we see hospitals declaring critical incidents.”
Asked if he supported the move to reduce the self-isolation period to five days – instead of the already cut-down seven – Mr Taylor said this could only be done if the science “said it was absolutely safe”.
He said the judgment on restrictions “needs to be driven by the data and what’s in the best interests of the country”, adding: “It shouldn’t be driven by a kind of political virility symbolism, where the sooner we can be free, the better it is, regardless of the effects. Let’s carry on being driven by the data.”
Schools reopening ‘like to cause spike in Covid cases,’ says professor
Infectious disease expert Professor Neil Ferguson has said that schools reopening is likely to cause an uptick in coronavirus infections, but they will be mild.
He spoke to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning, hours before secondary school pupils will return to the classroom after the Christmas break.
“The Delta infections in the last few months have been really driven by school-age children and by the older age groups in the population,” Prof Ferguson said.
“Omicron slipped in the middle in 18 to 45-year-olds really but it didn’t, as we heard, have much time to get into school children before schools shut and we expect to now see quite high infection levels, of mild infection I should emphasise, in school-age children.”
He added: “I think the good news here is it is certainly less severe, we think about one-third drop in the risk if you’ve never been infected before, never had a vaccine, about a one-third drop in the risk of just any hospital admission, probably a two-thirds drop in the risk of dying from Omicron, so substantially less severe and that has helped us, undoubtedly.”
‘Mixture’ of reasons why hospitals declare critical incidents – Throup
A government minister has blamed a “complete mixture” of reasons for why various hospitals are declaring critical incidents in England, while refusing to give a specific number of how many sites have been forced to do so.
“It can be very shortlived and it can be longer as well, but it’s for different reasons – sometimes it’s for staff shortages, sometimes it’s bed capacity,” vaccines minister Maggie Throup told Sky News. “It’s a complete mixture.”
However, when asked how many trusts were in such a state of emergency “as of this morning”, Ms Throup refused to give a specific number. “It would be wrong,” she said, owing to fact “it’s such a fast-moving situation”.
Put to her that perhaps she simply “didn’t know” the figure, the minister repeated claims it would be wrong for her to give specific numbers “when it could change” so soon afterwards.
Pushed to give reassurances to the public about the number of people self-isolating and hospitals in critical mode, Ms Throup said the best way for anyone to protect themselves and the NHS is to “come forward and get their vaccine”.
